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j9九游会九游国际版-j9九游会首页登录新版

2018

未来全球钢管需求及中国出口形势分析-j9九游会九游国际版

作者：

　　随着全球资源需求的不断增长，近年来原油、天然气价格不断上涨。opec(欧佩克)秘书长表示，至2020年opec石油供应量增加900万桶/天，保证全球石油产品的充足、稳定供给。而石油、天然气的生产需要大量的钢铁，其中管材占绝大多数，包括焊管和无缝管。笔者认为，这一轮的国际能源价格大幅上涨，对我国钢管出口市场将会产生什么样的影响，值得研究。

　　一、原油价格飚升刺激原油开采

　　新一轮经济持续增长，是能源需求增长的主要原因之一。2008年6月底，原油价格一举突破usd$140/桶，与1995年相比，整整涨了7倍;与2007年年初相比，上涨170%;与2007同期相比上涨近100%。

　　tocom(东京工业品交易所)指数同样显示，与去年同期相比，原油指数增长80.2%，天然气指数增长47.1%(图1)。剔除通胀导致的价格上涨因素，原油价格的上涨仍然十分迅速。从图1也容易看出，从2008年3月至今，石油价格增长速度要高于天然气。但据国外专家预测，下半年天然气价格可能上涨50%。

　　为保证全球石油的长期需求，2008-2010年opec在沙特，阿联酋，阿尔尼利亚，科威特，卡塔尔，利比亚等地区加大石油开采量，至2010年，opec日产能达3,970万桶/天,相比2007年增长11.2%，2008-2010年年均日供应量增长3.5%。

　　二、预计未来几年全球钢管需求年均增加400万吨

　　价格的上涨会促使能源生产企业加大投资，扩大生产，以适应新的需要。无论是石油及天然气的勘探开采，还是运输、加工，都需要大量的无缝管套管、焊管套管和管线管。

　　opec成员国增加能源开采量，将新增一批石油工程项目,假设石油平均密度0.88，1吨石油等于7桶，每口井产油20吨/天，打油井每钻进一米需要油井管65kg，油井平均深度在700-1500米之间，油井管占用钢总量40%左右,而钢管占石油工业用钢92%，如果按年均增加100万桶/天测算,那么,2008-2010年opec成员国新增项目共需钢管224.3-480.5万吨左右,年均需求增加74.8-160.2万吨。如果再加上ngl和其他液化产品用钢需求量，年均需求钢管可增加近130～200万吨。

　　　从天然气建设情况看，全球天然气管线建设(至2012年)所需钢管约2,500多万吨。其中，中国的西气东输二期、中亚管线等工程，共需要管线管1,000多万吨，平均年需求量为350-400万吨，约占全球管线管消费量50%;印度，马来西亚等亚太地区的天然气管线建设需要管线管约600万吨，占全球消费量25%。国际市场年均需求增加约200万吨。

　　根据上述石油、天然气国外建设情况分析，未来几年内，国际市场钢管年均新增需求量估计为400万吨左右，可以说，国际市场需求是比较旺盛的。

　　三、关税调整改变出口产品结构

　　2007年中国钢管企业共出口936万吨，占全国出口总量15%。从图4中可以看出，国家发改委2007年6月份颁布的关税政策，对钢管出口量的影响十分明显。2007年8月份钢管出口量环比减少25.3%。其中，焊管出口量环比减少35.1%。与此同时,钢管出口产品结构也发生了改变,无缝管仍享受国家出口退税,出口比例大幅上升,近50%左右;焊管出口比例则从先前的50%降至20%左右。

　　长期来看，从2007年下半年至2008年3月份，焊管出口量持续下降，相比减少72%，但近几个月出口量逐渐回升。焊管出口价格受高成本和需求支撑，一直保持上涨态势，月平均涨幅2%，与去年同期相比上涨34%。从图4中不难看出，焊管需求动力与无缝管相比要强，而且出口需求是呈刚性的。

　　另一方面，无缝管从去年6月份税率调整以来，其出口量占钢管出口总量比例不断提高，约50%以上。2007年下半年，钢管企业纷纷加大无缝管的生产和销售力度，导致市场供给略大于市场需求，但由于原材料的价格上涨，还是推动了市场价格缓慢震荡上行。

　　四、中国钢管反倾销案件增多，出口市场面临挑战

　　近年来，中国钢铁产品的大量出口。反倾销和反补贴案件频频发生。为此，国家发改委已取消了大多数钢铁产品的出口退税。从2007年6月份调整关税后，钢管出口数量明显减少，而且出口地区结构也呈现出了新特点.

　　中国无缝管主要出口地区中，北美地区所占比例最大，约占全国总出口量1/4。截止目前，仅无缝管出口美国地区占全国出口比例达到26%，增长十分迅猛，欧洲地区占14%。欧盟委员会于6月26日收到欧盟产业申请，将对中国生产无缝管进行反倾销调查。如果最终裁定对中国无缝管加征反倾销税和反补贴税，中国每年将减少30-40万吨出口量。而且，对美国市场出口数量的不断增多，值得国内无缝管企业的注意。中国政府也很有可能出台政策，降低或取消出口退税，以减少不断增多的中美贸易磨擦。

　　今年1-5月份，国内累计生产无缝钢管747.09万吨,其中，出口194.92万吨，占生产总量的26.1%.在这么高的外贸依存度下,如果减少或取消出口退税率对国内市场带来的冲击都将会是巨大的。

　　焊管主要出口地区中，北美地区占34%，其次是亚太地区占17%。由于美国地区钢材市场需求增长较快，关税加征以来，对美出口数量并未大幅减少。

　　美国itc在6月20日裁定，中国出口到美国的环状焊接碳素钢管对美国国内相关行业造成损害。这一举措是对中国钢管企业的一记重拳，美国将在未来5年里对中国出口到美国的该产品征收高额关税,反补贴税率将为30%-616%,平均37.2%，反倾销税率为69%-86%。加拿大公司向加边境服务署(cbsa)也正在对来自中国的焊管进行反倾销反补贴调查。

　　一旦失去北美市场，中国焊管出口量将减少150-200万吨/年。出口减少必定对国内市场造成压力。但是否会对国内市场造成巨大影响呢?2008年1-5月份，国内累计生产焊管917.79万吨,其中，出口127.3万吨，占生产总量14%，而北美市场占全国产量仅为3.1%。数据表明，焊管对出口的依赖程度要明显小于无缝管，这也就意味出口市场变化对国内市场的影响是较小的。

　　焊接钢管主要用电焊制造，电能消耗较大。6月份国内电价同比上调1.7分/度，对焊管生产企业的影响是不言而喻了，加上国内焊管新增项目又较少，夏季高温时期的到来，势必造成焊管产量下降。

　　综上所述，笔者认为，焊管出口在没有大幅缩小的情况下，国内市场供应可能出现偏紧的局面，价格仍将处于高位运行。

　　而高的外贸依存度，让无缝管市场更多的受制于国家以什么样的态度来看待出口市场的变化及采取何种政策措施。

钢管行业迎来贯标“大考”

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j9九游会九游国际版的技术支持：中企动力石家庄

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