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28

2018

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03

2月份钢铁pmi有所回升 连续十个月处荣枯线下-j9九游会九游国际版

作者：

　　据中物联钢铁物流专业委员会1日发布的指数报告，国内钢铁行业pmi指数2月份为45．1％，较上月回升2．1个百分点，为近4个月以来的最高值，显示钢铁行业整体形势略有改善。但这一指数已连续10个月处于50％的荣枯线以下，行业景气度低迷局面依然延续。
 
　　据分析，在2月份主要分项指数当中，生产指数与上月持平、新订单指数和新出口订单指数触底回升、产成品库存指数高位小幅回落，这些都显示，当前钢铁行业整体供需形势较前期有所改善，加之政策宽松预期和季节性因素，钢市回暖动能正在逐步聚集。
 
　　不过，由于春节期间社会库存出现大幅增加，春节后全国出现大范围的雨雪天气导致工程开工延迟，短期钢价弱势格局仍将持续。
 
　　钢铁业的成本支撑较前也略有趋强。购进价格指数在连续3个月下降之后，2月份触底反弹，较1月份回升6．3个百分点至29．8％。但这一指数相对仍处低位，显示当前原料市场仍在低位运行，对钢市的支撑力度并不强劲。从近几年的情况来看，春节过后的一段时期内，原料价格基本呈现跌多涨少的局面，特别是2014年以来，钢材终端需求始终难见起色，加之原料供给较为宽松，原料市场的弱势格局短期内难以改变。如果铁矿石价格进一步跌到每吨60美元以下，将会有更多的非主流矿山及国产矿山停产，后期矿石价格有望获得底部的支撑。
 
　　相关指数报告认为，由于春节期间市场库存与钢厂库存均大幅攀升，短期内钢材市场供大于求的矛盾会趋于尖锐，加之成本支撑仍显不足，钢价仍将在底部盘整。不过，从3月中旬开始，下游需求将逐步启动，政策宽松和季节性旺季因素或将局部性地化解供需矛盾，需求端的利好有望给低迷多时的钢市带来一定的提振效应。

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